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PENN ST AT PURDUE
PENN ST WENT 7-6 SU/ATS LY AND 4-5 SU IN CONFERENCE PLAY. THEY WERE LED BY THEIR DEFENSE WHICH WAS 3RD IN BIG 10 ALLOWING 17.3 PPG AND 199.8 PASSING YPG BUT ONLY RETURN 4 DEFENSIVE STARTERS AND BRING IN A NEW DC MANNY DIAZ. QB S. CLIFFORD RETURNS AFTER BEING 6TH IN CONFERENCE LY WITH 239 PASSING YPG. PURDUE POSTED THEIR BEST RECORD 9-4 LY (6-3 IN CONFERENCE) SINCE 2003 INCLUDING A BIG BOWL GAME WIN OVER TENNESSEE. THEY FINISHED THE SEASON 5-1 ATS AND RETURN MOST OF THEIR OFFENSE EXCEPT KEY RECEIVERS INCLUDING NFL DRAFT PICK D. BELL. QB A. O’CONNELL WAS 2ND IN BIG 10 WITH 309.3 PASSING YPG AND 71.8 COMPLETION PCT AND WILL BE BEHIND AN O-LINE RETURNING ALL ITS STARTERS. THEIR DEFENSE WAS 7TH ALLOWING 22.4 PPG BUT STRUGGLED AGAINST THE RUSH ALLOWING 157.8 YPG ON THE GROUND. PENN ST WAS 13TH IN BIG 10 WITH ONLY 107.8 RUSHING YPG BUT THEY WILL BE IMPROVED BRINGING 4 QUALITY BACKS LED BY RETURNER K. LEE. THE TWO TEAMS HAVEN’T MET SINCE 2019 WHERE PENN ST WON AT HOME 35-7. PURDUE IS 8-3 ATS SINCE 2018 AS A HOME UNDERDOG AND ARE RETURNING ENITRE STARTING O-LINE WITH ONE OF THE BEST QB’S IN CONFERENCE AGAINST A TEAM WHO LACKS EXPEREINCE DEFENSIVELY WITH A NEW DC, I’LL TAKE THE HOME DOG.
I LIKE PURDUE +3.5
CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT OKLAHOMA ST (12)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN WENT 9-4 SU AND ATS LY AND WENT 8-5 TO THE UNDER. OFFENSIVELY THEY WERE 36TH IN FBS SCORING 31.3 PPG AND THEY DID THAT PRIMARILY PASSING WITH 267.2 YPG (27TH IN FBS). QB D. RICHARDSON LOST BOTH HIS PRIMARY WR’S INCLUDING K. PIMPLETON BUT THEY DO RETURN RB L. NICHOLS WHO LED FBS IN RUSHING WITH 1828 YDS. OKLAHOMA ST WENT 12-2 SU AND ATS LY AND WERE A WIN AWAY FROM THE CFB PLAYOFF. THEY WERE LED BY THEIR DEFENSE WHICH WAS 10TH IN FBS ALLOWING 18.2 PPG AND 4TH ALLOWING JUST 290.2 TOTAL YPG. THEIR DEFENSE TAKES A HIT LOSING THEIR COORDINATOR J. KNOWLES AND ONLY RETURNING 4 STARTERS INCLUDING LOSING THEIR TOP 4 TACKLERS. OFFENSIVELY THEY LOST BOTH THEIR LEADING WR AND RB BUT DO RETURN QB S. SANDERS. THE UNDER IS 7-2 CMU LAST 9 ROAD GAMES AND OK ST WENT 8-5-1 TO THE UNDER LY. BOTH TEAMS LOST KEY OFFENSIVE WEAPONS AND CMU UNDER A NEW OC WITH L. NICHOLS RETURNING WILL BE A RUN FOCUSSED OFFENSE. OK ST DID LOSE KEY ASSETS DEFENSIVELY BUT WILL STILL BE THE BEST DEFENSE CMU PLAYS TY WHO’S OFFENSE AND QB WILL STRUGGLE ON THE ROAD WITH NEW WEAPONS AND OC.
I LIKE THE UNDER 58